Dr. Cory Baggett

Innovim, LLC / NOAA / NCEP / Climate Prediction Center 

The Week 3-4 Outlook of the Climate Prediction Center: Operational and Scientific Challenges

Since May 2017, the Climate Prediction Center has been issuing Week 3-4 outlooks for temperature and precipitation across the United States. Accurate outlooks at this lead time are greatly desired by stakeholders from the emergency management, energy, and water resource sectors. Currently, the temperature outlooks are considered operational with some skill, whereas the precipitation outlooks remain in an experimental state due to a lack of appreciable skill. From both an operational and scientific perspective, the Week 3-4 period remains challenging due to it falling squarely within the subseasonal “gap.” This gap exists between weather timescales when initial conditions provide skill and climate timescales when boundary forcings provide skill. Here, a brief overview of the forecast process and tools employed by the Climate Prediction Center will be presented. This will include an introduction to the dynamical models used, such as those from the Subseasonal Experiment. In addition, an introduction will be given to the empirical forecasting techniques used, including those that rely on the teleconnections forced by the El-Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Other sources of predictability, such as the long term trend, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and the polar vortex will be explored. Finally, Week 3-4 products that are currently in the research and development stage, including those of atmospheric river activity and severe convective storms, will be shared.